Ipsos Mori poll: Half of Scots now support independence

Support for independence from women still trailing men

HALF of Scots would vote for Scottish independence if a second referendum was held now.

The findings come from an Ipsos Mori Poll conducted on behalf of STV. It found that 50 per cent would vote Yes and 50 per cent No, in a poll that included those who said they knew how they would vote and were either very likely or certain to vote. However, the poll did not include undecided voters. 54 per cent of men opted for Yes, but 56 per cent of women would vote No.

Speaking on the findings, Ipsos Mori Scotland director Mark Diffley, said: “In the immediate aftermath of the EU Referendum vote last June there was an increase in support for independence, which ebbed away later in the year.

“This poll suggests some modest movement back towards independence since we last measured opinion six months ago. It will certainly provide the SNP with a lift ahead of their spring conference in Aberdeen next week.” Mark Diffley

“This poll suggests some modest movement back towards independence since we last measured opinion six months ago. It will certainly provide the SNP with a lift ahead of their spring conference in Aberdeen next week.”

Support for independence has creeping forward since Prime Minister Theresa May made it clear that the UK’s exit from the EU would mean exiting the single market and EU free movement.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said repeatedly since the UK voted to leave the EU in June 2016 that a second vote on Scottish Independence was now “highly likely”.

The Scottish Government has argued that special status - some form of EU association - for Scotland after Brexit remains a compromise solution that could avert a second poll. However, this option was snubbed at the Scottish Conservative conference last week (4 March), and May has repeatedly said that the UK will leave the EU as a single entity.

There is speculation that Sturgeon may announce a second referendum at the SNP conference next weekend (17-18 March). She has suggested that late 2018 would be a “commonsense” time for a second vote.

Picture courtesy of John Keane

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