Support for Scottish independence rebounds three years after referendum

Latest Survation poll puts support for independence at 46 per cent and predicts Tories will return to third place

SUPPORT for Scottish independence has risen to 46 per cent in favour, according to the latest Survation poll.

In a new opinion poll published shortly before the third anniversary of the 2014 independence referendum, support for independence has risen by three points since June.

The poll was conducted at the beginning of the month following the release of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s Programme for Government, and based its findings on the polling of 1,016 Scots.

The poll also indicated that Labour would become Scotland’s second-largest party once again, returning the Scottish Conservatives to third place, partially reversing their recent electoral fortunes and their near-consolidation of the unionist vote.

“This poll shows support for Scottish independence remains consistently high.” SNP spokesperson

However, increased support for independence did not translate into a rebound for the SNP following their setbacks in this year’s General Election. Since last year, the poll indicated that SNP support had dropped 4.5 per cent on the constituency vote and 11 per cent on the regional list vote.

The contrast would suggest that falling support for the SNP does not necessarily translate to a decline in support for Scottish independence.

Following the poll’s release, an SNP spokesperson told the Sunday Herald: “This poll shows support for Scottish independence remains consistently high, with increased support on the last Survation poll, and particularly strong support among women and young people.

“Although we are far from another election, it is also hugely welcome to see that the SNP is recording double-digit poll leads after 10 years in government, while the Tories have fallen into third place.”

Should the patterns shown in the most recent polling remain unchanged between now and 2021, the Survation poll also points towards the SNP losing nine seats. The same data also suggests that the Scottish Greens would increase their MSPs from six to eight, but should this scenario come to pass, the Scottish parliament would lose its pro-independence majority in the next parliamentary election.

“I think the groundwork should be being laid now for a potential SNP-Labour coalition that to many will seem unthinkable.” Labour MEP David Martin

Responding to Survation’s findings, Scottish Labour MEP David Martin told the Herald: "We are far away from the next Holyrood elections, but I think the groundwork should be being laid now for a potential SNP-Labour coalition that to many will seem unthinkable.

“I would not quite say there is a rapprochement but there is more possibility of cooperation and working together than there has been in a long time.”

SNP MEP Alyn Smith described Martin’s comments as a “welcome intervention” and did not rule out a coalition as “unthinkable”, pointing to the fact that the SNP and Labour already collaborate on the running of Edinburgh City Council.

“Richard Leonard says no coalition, no deals, no pacts with the SNP. Er, not even to keep Ruth Davidson from becoming first minister?” Times columnist Kenny Farquarson

However, both Anas Sarwar and Richard Leonard, the two candidates for the Scottish Labour leadership, have now come out against any coalition between the SNP and Labour, with Leonard denying press reports that he had not ruled out such a deal at his Glasgow campaign launch on Saturday.

This has left both candidates open to accusations that they are putting party tribalism ahead of opposition to the Conservatives. Following Leonard’s announcement, Times columnist Kenny Farquarson commented on Twitter: “Richard Leonard says no coalition, no deals, no pacts with the SNP. Er, not event to keep Ruth Davidson from becoming first minister?”

Picture courtesy of Alf Melin

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Comments

MauriceBishop

Mon, 09/18/2017 - 19:53

"the time to propose another referendum will be when there is clear evidence that opinion has changed and that independence has become the choice of a majority of people in Scotland". - Nicola Sturgeon

Her plan to grievance monger Brexit until that target was met has clearly failed.

The only thing on her mind now is how can she keep her minority together so that she can continue on as First Minister, despite her record.

orcadia

Mon, 09/18/2017 - 19:50

so to all the Brit Nats among you or those who would vote labour (same thing) if at next election you vote labour and labour wont go with SNP, guess what, we will have tories in government in Scotland, hope that would make you happy

Moridura's picture

Moridura

Mon, 09/18/2017 - 19:57

Thanks, Sean - useful analysis and marshalling of facts, comment etc.
I tweeted on the Survation and Panelbase sureveys yesterday and the apparent contradictions inherent in the answers to SNP drop in support at Holyrood, rise in SNP Westminster voting intentions, support for indy and views of Brexit.
I'm in broad agreement with your conclusions.

regards,

Peter

Peter Dow's picture

Peter Dow

Mon, 09/18/2017 - 21:19

Well as the candidate for election as Scottish Labour Party leader whose name has been kept off the ballot paper (by those party managers whose job it ISN'T to rig the election), I am proud to say that I DO support a coalition, deal or pact between Scottish Labour and the SNP.

I'd even be open to the possibility of a possible merger between Scottish Labour and the SNP but only if that was done democratically and agreed by both parties at their own conferences and / or by a postal ballot.

Then again, maybe that is because I support INDEPENDENCE and voted YES in the indy-ref of 2014?

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