Poll: 50 per cent support for independence as SNP stay on course to win most Scottish votes

Two weeks ahead of the General Election, the latest Ipsos MORI/STV poll shows the SNP on 44 per cent

  • New poll from Ipsos MORI’s Scottish Political Monitor reveals 50/50 split over independence among Scottish voters, but a narrow majority opposed to a second referendum in the next year
  • SNP set for major win in December’s General Election, with the Scottish Conservatives almost 20 points behind, while Labour and the Lib Dems trail at 16 and 11 per cent
  • SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford: “With support for independence now at 50 per cent, it is completely unsustainable for any Westminster politician to try and block Scotland’s right to choose.”

NEW POLLING from Ipsos MORI has revealed a 50/50 split on independence between those likely to vote in a second Scottish referendum, while also suggesting that the SNP is on course to dominate Scottish seats in December’s General Election.

Figures released today by Ipsos MORI’s Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, put support for the SNP amongst Scottish voters at 44 per cent ahead of the 12 December election.

The Scottish Conservatives stand in second place on 26 per cent, while Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats trail behind at 16 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. The Scottish Greens currently poll at two per cent, while the Brexit Party polls at less than one per cent.

Amongst those polled with a voting intention, over three quarters (77 per cent) reported that they had made up their mind on who they will vote for, while 23 per cent say they may yet change their mind.

According to the polling, those planning to vote for the SNP or Scottish Tories are more certain of their intentions than those voting Labour or Liberal Democrat, with 84 per cent of both SNP and Tory supporters saying they have definitely decided. In comparison, only 73 per cent of Labour supporters and 66 per of Liberal Democrat supports were similarly resolute.

READ MORE: New poll shows increasing support for indyref2 as Scottish Tories face near-wipeout

On Scottish independence, 50 per cent of voters who would be likely to vote in a second referendum on Scotland’s future say they would vote Yes, while 50 per cent would vote No.

However, 50 per cent of Scots oppose another referendum being held within the next year – the timeframe currently being pursued by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and endorsed by the Scottish Greens, while 42 per cent support it.

This follows YouGov polling from September, which found that a slim majority of Scottish voters would back a second independence referendum within the next five years.

Amongst the key factors in December’s General Election, the Ipsos MORI poll found Brexit topped the list of issues which voters mentioned unprompted (56 per cent), followed by the NHS (44 per cent), Scottish independence/devolution (34 per cent) and education (24 per cent). Climate change and protecting the environment were the key issues for only 8 per cent of respondents.

While Nicola Sturgeon was the only Scottish party leader not to receive a negative satisfaction rating in the poll, the results indicate that the public remain split on her job performance as first minister, with 46 per cent describing themselves as satisfied and 48 per cent saying dissatisfied.

“It’s increasingly clear that this election is a two horse race in Scotland.” SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford MP

Commenting, Ipsos MORI managing director Emily Gray said: “The SNP have most reason to be pleased with the findings from our poll. The party looks set to make gains at the General Election and Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings remain the highest of any of the party leaders. Looking beyond the election, the timing of a second independence referendum remains a difficult balancing act for Nicola Sturgeon, since more of the Scottish public oppose a second referendum being held in the next year than support it.

“While the Conservatives’ share of the vote looks likely to be a little lower than it was at the 2017 General Election, the poll has major warning signs for Scottish Labour. Richard Leonard has the lowest satisfaction ratings of any of the Scottish leaders of the four largest parties, and most of the seats the party gained in 2017 look at risk of turning from red to yellow on December 12th.”

Responding to the poll, SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford MP commented: “It’s increasingly clear that this election is a two horse race in Scotland.

“Only the SNP can beat the Tories and deprive Boris Johnson of the majority he craves.

“And with support for independence now at 50 per cent, it is completely unsustainable for any Westminster politician to try and block Scotland’s right to choose.

"The SNP will be working every day between now and the election to keep Boris Johnson out of Downing St. 

“Voters have a choice – if they want to escape Brexit and end austerity, they need to vote SNP.”

Picture courtesy of Garry Knight

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